My Life, My Dream, My Destiny

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Advice from Greeksman on my trade

Sean,
Based on what I saw on your chart (a 30 min chart), for this type of BOT (Break-out trade), and imgaine if I were to take on this trade, I may use risk/reward of 1:1 to go in.
I roughly saw the SL be round 65 pips, and thus my first PT will be around 1.3550.
After this, I will exit half of my position, and move the rest to breakeven.

Another way is to set PT to be say 35 pips (65/2 rounded up), and if this is hit, I will exit half of my position, and guarantee a risk free trade no matter what by moving the rest to breakeven.

Either way, I believe is doable.

Now, here is my additional $0.02 as to why I trade not just based on technical but also fundamental.
We all know FOMC interest rate annoncement to be at 2:15am EST (just a few hours later). So, since there is an expection of at least 50BPS rate cut, USD by right will be sold off before annoucement.

If you are trading EUR/USD or even GBP/USD, you should expect both currency pair to go up. This is the time whereby I will rather pick EUR/USD and GBP/USD than EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY because USD is weaker than JPY and thus, trading currency pair is better than carry trade pair.

With this expectation, I may want to ride on the trend if it is going to be strong.

So, this is where the stop for the remaining position becomes tricky.

Since you are trading a 30 mins chart, you may wish to consider using 1 bar reversal or 3-bar reversal depending on your risk tolerance.

When you are getting more advanced, you may consider using not even lots but triple lots. The last run is the real "home run" and wow, once a while you can really laugh to the bank.

Well, I don't think I should go into that kind of details at this point.

However, these are the things as a professional forex trader I would consider when deciding:
1. Which pair to trade - normal pair or cross or carry trade pair (fundamental outlook)
2. When to get in and what kind of stops I am looking at (lot size and money management)
3. When to get out (in case the market gives me a home run and I will eat it).

Good luck!

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